英倫金融[外匯評論]：行情發展令人吃驚

昨天的價格走勢有一半是與我所提及的預期情況相符，英鎊兌美元的價格運行沒有任何進展，而歐元兌日元和澳元則表現很好。FOMC確實擾亂了市場行情，但也很奇妙地起到了恰到好處的作用，結合實際走勢中形成的穩定基礎，似乎很好地契合了波浪的發展。因此，這個“吃驚”幫了我們忙—或者幫了我的忙。
目前美聯儲這邊的情況暫時確定，現在再次聚焦歐盟事件，換湯不換藥，結果都是一樣…美元的走強。話雖如此，當然也是需要等待，特別是在亞盤時段，但這是好事，因為歐元兌日元在進一步下跌之前需要展現另一段震盪走勢。事實上，美元兌日元和歐元兌美元之間的平衡似乎
受到歐元兌日元的精心安排。這是走勢最不簡單的一個貨幣對，因為價格的走勢傾向而導致了較複雜和異常的結構出現。然而，目前價格展現了很好的下行路徑，伴隨較小的投影目標，預期目標價位非常清晰。
我一直在英鎊兌美元的阻力區間等待著，期間價格走勢展現了幾個場景。相對比歐元兌美元和美元兌瑞士法郎來講，英鎊幾乎對FOMC表現出無所畏懼的樣子。價格走勢可能會進一步推高，但事實上幾乎沒有為下一步行動眨一下眼（可能已經睡著…），所以FOMC公佈的情況或許對其走勢運行有些幫助。
至於日元貨幣對…嗯…,美元兌日元表現有些奇怪，但價格運行確確實實觸及了我的表格中的另一個備選目標，並確認了一個三角形走勢的完成。價格下破了105.54低點，但隨後反彈到更高點位。從這一點上看，我認為我們需要小心處理。價格仍有進一步下行的風險。因此，結合歐元兌日元方面的上述看法，以及歐元兌美元和美元兌日元的走勢發展情況，我們應該得出一些前景展望…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Spooked
While yesterday worked against me for half of the pairs I cover, GBPUSD went nowhere while EURJPY and the Aussie performed admirably. It was the FOMC that really screwed it up but, strangely enough, it appears to have jogged the wave development along to actually provide a more stable footing. Thus, the “spooker” has done us – or me – a favour.
So, now it’s done, it’s all about the Eee-eewww again and that promises the same medicine and the same outcome... Dollar bullish. Having said that, there is a certain sense of waiting, particularly during the Asian session, but this is good because we need another wriggle in EURJPY before it can move back lower. Indeed, the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD has almost looked like being orchestrated by EURJPY. It’s not the easiest of pairs because of its propensity to generate awkward and irregular structures. However, it is in a nice downward path with lower degree projections that have some pretty clear targets.
I have been sitting on the fence in GBPUSD with several scenarios. Compared to EURUSD and USDCHF the Pound barely flinched at the FOMC. It could have pushed up much higher but the fact it didn’t even blink an eyelid (probably sleeping…) has opened up the next move so the FOMC process appears to have helped.
The JPY pairs… hmmm… well, USDJPY was a little strange but did hit an alternative target I had in my spreadsheet on the dot and the confirmed a triangle that has now completed. It has broken below the 105.54 low but then whipped back higher. From this point I think we need to progress with care. It still has downside risk. Thus, with the comments on EURJPY above and the combination with EURUSD and USDJPY, we should have a decent outlook…
Good trading
Ian Copsey